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Post by Dullahan on Nov 2, 2008 12:43:23 GMT -5
What else can I point to? He hasn't posted much this entire game, while Presto spent most of his time fighting against Cern, and if he was a killer it would have been a waste of time, as he could've killed him without the vote. Does that clear him of suspicion? Of course not, it raises some questions. I'm just saying that ignoring mcfly is a big mistake, where as you can't ignore Presto if you tried.
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Post by Rinjo on Nov 2, 2008 13:03:36 GMT -5
What are our reasons for suspecting Presto? He was championing the fight against Cern. Is that our only reason?
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Post by Dullahan on Nov 2, 2008 13:09:51 GMT -5
If I understand Wildknight, yes. That and Cern named him in that message, but that tells us almost nothing. Cern was obviously a killer, but that doesn't follow that the others were, although the mafia obviously didn't want to take the chance. I have little reason to suspect Presto, except the eyes with which I'm studying everyone this game(which is not helping, for the record). No one has done anything ridiculous, so we don't have alot to go on.
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Post by soban on Nov 2, 2008 14:54:11 GMT -5
I think Cen got killed becuase he knew too much. I think he was mafia and did reveal the names of the other mafia making our job easier. He got killed in retaliation. I also find it interesting that in the description of the deaths he got killed twice. This leads me to think that tomorrow night there will be three deaths if we do not kill one of the serial killers. The mafia can be dealt with later. We should focus on doing what will bring down the death rate fastest. AKA killing the serial killers.
Edit: I think I'm likely to get lynched given what I just said.
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Post by Rinjo on Nov 2, 2008 15:11:03 GMT -5
Serial Killers count as townies for townie victory. If we kill the serial killers and let the mafia live we in essence hand the game over to the mafia. THis is way harder than what I signed on for. I thought day two would be a lot easier. I have little reason to suspect Presto, except the eyes with which I'm studying everyone this game(which is not helping, for the record). No one has done anything ridiculous, so we don't have alot to go on. I agree. Other than leading a charge against Cern I have no reason to suspect Presto either. I was one of his main points of contention in the last round (as in I was one of the main people arguing with him)... but with all Cern went through... to top it off his murder, I am not sure that Presto was wrong. At this point I still have my suspicions but I don't know where to send the rope yet.
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Post by WildKnight on Nov 2, 2008 15:48:34 GMT -5
*scratches head*
Um... have you guys forgotten that TWO people died? Theres more at work here than mafia, and the killers are just as much of a threat as the mafia. They kill an equal number of people each day.
Either you have to believe that Chuck was just guessing about the killers, or you have to believe that Chuck WAS a killer. Which of those two seems most likely?
If you said "the first one"... there is no hope for you.
If you (intelligently) said "the second one" then we can guess that Chuck MAY have also properly identified his fellow killers, or we can guess that he made them up entirely.
Personally, I'm much more comfortable killing Presto IN CASE he's a killer (or mafia) than killing anybody else with absolutely no evidence other than the previous vote of anyone's allegiance.
The serial killers win when only serial killers are left alive... so TO ME the most likely scenario is this; Thuellai (whose day it was to kill someone) selects to kill Cernunnos (for obvious reasons), while the mafia elects to kill Thuellai because they hoped to put even more suspicion on Chuck who, lets face it, was probably going to get lynched today, and thats just the kind of nudge we would have needed...
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Post by soban on Nov 2, 2008 15:59:45 GMT -5
mmm, I'm comfortable with lynching presto if everyone else is.
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Post by Presto on Nov 2, 2008 16:57:46 GMT -5
Unfortunately I can't really defend myself at this point...
To be honest, I didn't believe there really were Serial Killers in this game, or rather I was hoping that there wouldn't be. This game is dangerous enough just between Townies and Mafiaso, but throwing in Serial Killers into the picture just makes it more of a threat between everyone.
Now, the question is. Who killed Cern? To be honest, I agree that I think it was the Serial Killer. If I was voting to kill someone off, if I was a serial killer, I would just pick Cern. I wouldn't tell any specific way for him to die. Superbro obviously came up with that method there, and the 'guilty' note is a nod to the fact that it was a Serial Killer.
However, why vote to lynch me? Just because Cern was hit? Then what do we do tommorow? Lynch you because you voted for me? I'm not upset, I'm a very viable target and a logical consideration, but look at it from my point of view.
IF I was a Serial Killer... Why lynch Cern? Yesterday we all but had Cern voted off. We all agreed to change to Goats because it seemed fairer. But today Cern would have made a better target for me to continue campaigning against to lynch. IF I was a serial killer, I would be aware that killing Cern would make me a VERY likely target. I would have killed someone else, and kept campaigning against Cern. I would have to kill EVERYONE else to win that way, Killing Cern would not only be a waste of a kill but would needlessly point fingers in my way.
It's like I stated earlier. If we're going to attack people just because their willing to speak and exchange their opinions, then this game will quickly go against townies in favor of Mafiaso. and apparently Serial Killers as well.
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Post by WildKnight on Nov 2, 2008 17:46:41 GMT -5
*slaps forehead*
Am I typing in Martian???
I'm not suggesting Presto because he voted for Chuck. *I* voted for Chuck! I'm suggesting Presto because
A) Chuck suggested there were killers other than the Mafia in the game
B) That has been proven correct
C) Chuck named three killers... himself, Thuellai, and Presto
D) Two of those people are dead, leaving only Presto
E) We can kill a random person based on random suspicions, or we can kill Presto based on a very specific suspicion (that he is in fact a serial killer, as Chuck suggested)
I'm not sure how this doesn't add up for you people. Do any of you have any real evidence to suggest that anybody is or is not a mafioso or a serial killer? Me neither. But I DO know that Chuck (admittedly in a selfish attempt to save himself) revealed the existence of the serial killers to us. I do know that there is one or more serial killers, or were before Chuck died. If we're going to kill someone, I see NO reason not to target the most likely remaining serial killer.
Let me break it down further, since people seem not to grasp this. There are at least 3 factions at play here (mafia, townies, and serial killers). Mafia and serial killers each remove 1 person from the game per night, and each win the game by being the only ones remaining. That gives them a tactical edge. That changes the math here dramatically.
Right now, this is going to be over quickly (in favor of the mafia or the serial killers), as we're losing 3 people per day. Even assuming that at least one of those people is a mafioso or a serial killer... 5 mafia + 3 serial killers = 8. More than half of the original 14... and now we're down to 11.
Its pretty obvious that the serial killers "kill" before the mafia (we don't have to know whether the mafia killed Chuck or Thuellai to to know this... we only have to accept that one or the other was a serial killer, and since Chuck knew about them, its pretty darned obvious he was one...).
It just follows logically that we are much better off to try to get rid of the serial killers than we are to take random shots in the dark like "mcfly changed his vote!" If we lynch the last serial killer, then there will be only two deaths today. If we don't, there will be 3... and chances are that 2 of them will be townies.
11 - 3 = 8. The odds keep getting worse and worse, for us, the longer we twiddle our thumbs and keep trying to pretend we know things we can't know.
So check your egoes at the door, please... its not a penis measuring contest. Its a test of how well you can follow a logical progression of events and keep your head. Right now, we can all point fingers at each other... or we can kill the one guy who we have any semblance of verification that he's a danger to us. Thats Presto.
I admit its very thin... theres a fair chance that Chuck was the sole serial killer and the mafia killed him after he killed Thuellai. But the ONLY other option is that the mafia killed Thuellai, and that means the serial killers killed Chuck. If Chuck knew about the serial killers (he obviously did), it follows that he was one of them. If the serial killers killed Chuck (a 50/50 chance), then there have to have been more serial killers THAN Chuck... which leads us right back to Presto, Chuck's accused accomplice.
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Post by Presto on Nov 2, 2008 17:54:26 GMT -5
I'm sorry WK, I must have missed that.
You fail to take into account however that cern was likely just making it all up to throw confusion into the game. Which was entirely the reason I wanted to vote him off to begin with, that even if he was a townie he was still a disruption.
His 'reveal' only named me and Thue because... wait for it... we were voting against him. Me and Thue were the two primary people behind voting to Lynch him, so of course hes going to do what he could to make us both look bad so we go down after him.
That's like me saying.
"Hey guys. You know what? I'm Mafia... and so Is WK, and Soban, and Revan."
It's just something thats said to disrupt the Townies thinking... ESPECIALLY if you have a grudge against those speicifc individuals and are seeking to get them taken out when you're powerless.
I try not to play those games though, because they end up doing more harm than good... I'm seeking to win this game, and I can only do that if we stick together, not turn on each other.
I wish I had another person to point fingers at at this moment... but based on past evidence, I don't right now. All I can do is try and defend myself.
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Post by WildKnight on Nov 2, 2008 17:58:50 GMT -5
You fail to take into account however that cern was likely just making it all up to throw confusion into the game. Uhhh... and then how do we explain the extra dead guy...? I mean, c'mon. You don't seriously expect me to believe that he made the whole thing up and it just so happened to turn out to be true?? We've got 3 dead guys on our hands. I know how 2 of them died. We lynched Goats and the mafia whacked either Chuck or Thu. How do we account for the third corpse? Suicide? The only way it makes sense is if there are (or at least were) serial killers. I just don't buy it that Chuck just threw that out there to save his neck and by chance it turned out to be true.
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Post by Presto on Nov 2, 2008 18:07:03 GMT -5
And why not? Just today on the OOC thread hes thrown out that he was 'recruited' by a Vampire. Do we have Vampires now?
I wouldn't put it past him to look at the rules on the Wiki page, and use the Serial Killer characters as a way to throw more confusion into the game... and still end up being right. Or hey, maybe he WAS a serial killer, but still he could have been naming me and Thue JUST to make sure we go down anyway.
I'm just saying basing your opinion on that 'reveal' is kinda a weak stance... and really plays more into what Cern was wanting to begin with.
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Post by WildKnight on Nov 2, 2008 18:15:51 GMT -5
While I in no way believe or accept the proposal that he just tossed it out there and happened to be correct...
I have already acknowledged that its pretty thin. It requires a lot of assumptions and leaps in logic.
My point is that, no matter how thin, its more solid than anything else we have to go on.
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Post by Presto on Nov 2, 2008 18:22:22 GMT -5
But i'm pointing out that its not really that solid at all... That basing an opinion to lynch me is more of playing into Cerns hands seeking vengance than actually seeking to eliminate Mafiaso or Serial Killers.
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Post by mcfly on Nov 2, 2008 18:32:08 GMT -5
Erm guys looking at the message super bro posted it seems more like the second death was attributable to a vigilante than a serial killer.. Serial killers don't leave cards with guilty on them.... and vigilanties seem to be part of the game according to the wiki :<
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